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The algorithms, without the cologne

Common sports-math ideas in English — and why we still lock one PinksDesk pick instead of worshipping the market.

There is no secret NFL formula. There are families of math people reuse because football scoring is noisy and the season is short. Pinks is not one of those models with a cologne name. We say what we are.

The families, in English

Power ratings (Elo, Glicko, Silver’s ELWAY): every team has a number. Win, the number goes up. Lose, it goes down. Home field is worth about three points in the public Elo everyone copies. Week 1 has almost nothing to update — last year is a ghost.

Least-squares rankings (Massey, Colley): who beat whom, by how much, strength of schedule baked in. Needs games. We do not have a real Massey until Sunday’s scores exist.

Scoring profile (Pythagorean): points scored vs points allowed, exponent around 2.37 in football. Record lies; point differential tells you who got lucky. Also needs games.

Price: strip the juice off a moneyline and you have the market’s percent. Circa −150 is not “a lock.” It is “the market thinks about 58% after tax.”

Stake (Kelly): how large, if you have an edge. Process (closing-line value): did you beat the number the book closed at, even if the game later went the other way. That is how you know if you were sharp or lucky.

What Pinks actually is this week

A weighted blend, printed: market 32, capper consensus 18, injuries 16, public fade 12, spot 12, desk prior 10.

The market slice is the other models already averaged, with juice on top. We are not smarter than Circa on Wednesday of Week 1. We are overlaying injuries, public tickets, and a travel spot (Melbourne) on that price.

Grok is a pull — last-hour injuries and CBS/Circa when you tap — not a neural net we trained on 30 years of downs. Calling that “AI picks” would be cologne.

After Sunday

Once we have points, a toy Massey and Pythagorean become legal. Until then, claiming a power rating is costume.

Closing-line value starts when we grade our snapshot against the number that died at kickoff. Pull CBS / Circa vs the printed line is the first half. The final is the second.

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