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Core

Don’t bet rent

If losing the ticket changes your week, the ticket is too big. Kelly is a formula, not a dare.

Sports are supposed to stay sports. The second a slip decides rent, groceries, or whether you show up to work right, you are not handicapping. You are in a hole. Climb out. 1-800-GAMBLER.

The week test

Write down the number you can burn on Sunday and still have a normal Monday. That number is the bankroll for the week — not your checking account, not your rent, not the credit card.

The 3-teamer is the ticket sized to that number. The 6-teamer is a flyer off what is left. Flip those and you will hate football by 5:15 PT.

Units, without a spreadsheet

A unit is 1% of what you can stand to lose this season, not this hour. If that season number is $500, a unit is $5. A 3-teamer at 2–5 units is a real ticket. A 6-teamer at 1 unit is a poster.

People get wrecked increasing the unit after a hit. The unit does not move because Jacksonville covered. The unit moves when the bankroll does, slowly.

Kelly in one paragraph

Kelly Criterion is a formula: how large a bet should be if you truly have an edge. Most people do not have an edge. The juice means the house is the one with Kelly on you.

If you cannot explain why your number is better than Circa’s, Kelly says bet zero. That is the useful part. The rest is costume.

Stop is a method

1-800-GAMBLER. Nevada Council on Problem Gambling. If the app is open at 1 a.m. on a Tuesday and no game is on, close it.

This desk will never tell you a ticket is rent money. If a page ever sounds like that, it is a bug.

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