The letter · Thu Sep 10

The ladder is four tickets, not four ideas.

A parlay is all-or-nothing. The price is the moneylines multiplied. JAX −455, DET −310, LAC −550 is a 3-teamer that looks like a lock and pays like a small favorite — because it is three small favorites stacked, juice and all.

The 4-teamer is that ticket plus the Eagles. The 5 adds Burrow at home. The 6 adds the Bears on the road. You do not rebuild when you get nervous. You step down a rung.

The pink ticket marks the weak leg and sizes a moneyline the other way so if that team dies you get about even, and if the parlay hits you are still up. If the hedge would eat the ticket, drop the leg instead.