The climb
Engine
100% is the north star, not a claim. Every final is graded. Weights are public. This is a snapshot we typed — not a live odds ticker. Wire is the live pull, on demand.
Desk SU
1–1 · 50%
Printed card vs finals
Engine SU
1–1 · 50%
Same games, scored blend
Engine ATS
0–2 · 0%
Vs the number, not the pool
Weights
How much each lane moves the blend. Bars below a game are that game.
- market 32%
- consensus 18%
- injury 16%
- public 12%
- situation 12%
- desk 10%
Families
Full lessonOn the desk vs not yet. Elo and Massey need a season. We will not costume them in Week 1.
- Market / vig-stripped lineon desk
Price
32% of the blend. Biggest weight because the close is the hardest thing to beat.
- Capper consensuson desk
Crowd of experts
18%. Humans, side by side, in Analysts.
- Injury / availabilityon desk
State
16%. Tags on the slate, then Wire when you pull.
- Public fadeon desk
Market microstructure
12%. Haircut on Yours if you leave that box on.
- Situationon desk
Context
12%. Home / road / MNF / travel notes.
- Desk prioron desk
Human overlay
10%. Graded every final.
- Elonot yet
Power rating
Not running. Week 1 has almost no 2026 games to update. Market is the prior.
- Massey / Colleynot yet
Least squares ranking
Not running. Needs a season of results. After Sunday 1 we can start a toy Massey. Not this week.
- Pythagorean winsnot yet
Scoring profile
Not running. Zero 2026 regular-season points until Sunday finishes.
- Poisson / scoring distributionnot yet
Totals
Totals are a lean, not a sim. Pass unless the number is extreme.
- Kelly criterionnot yet
Stake
Taught in Learn. Not a bet-sizer on the ticket. Don't bet rent.
- Closing line valuenot yet
Process score
Pull CBS / Circa vs snapshot is the seed of CLV. We do not yet grade tickets against the close. That is the next math after Sunday.
Sunday–Monday, ranked
Pull live GrokGraded
Feeds we actually use
From your list: NFL.com, ESPN, CBS, Action Network, SportsLine, Covers. VegasInsider, NBC, and USA TODAY are duplicates — listed, not queried.
First on trades and IR.
Injury timelines.
Practice / QB2.
Friday inactives.
Noise that sometimes is real.
Snap / target clues.
- NFLx
Finals.
Tickets vs money.
The number in this town.
- NFL.comscores
Official. Free. This is the spine.
- NFL.com injuriesinjury
DNP / LP / FP is the only injury language that matters Friday.
- ESPN NFLscores
Fast finals. Duplicate of NFL.com, kept as a second clock.
- CBS Sports NFLodds
Free consensus board. Primary line shop input.
- Action Network publicpublic
The one public-split page worth a click. Fade 65%+ on short numbers.
- SportsLinepicks
Free headlines only. We already store Cohen / model / Hartstein. No paywall scrape.
- Covershistory
Free ATS tables. Logan’s dog list is a fade check, not a card.
Skipped
- VegasInsider — Same board as CBS. Skip unless CBS is down.
- NBC Sports — Story, not a number. Skip.
- USA TODAY odds hub — Duplicate. Skip.