The climb

Engine

100% is the north star, not a claim. Every final is graded. Weights are public. This is a snapshot we typed — not a live odds ticker. Wire is the live pull, on demand.

Desk SU

1–1 · 50%

Printed card vs finals

Engine SU

1–1 · 50%

Same games, scored blend

Engine ATS

0–2 · 0%

Vs the number, not the pool

Weights

How much each lane moves the blend. Bars below a game are that game.

  • market 32%
  • consensus 18%
  • injury 16%
  • public 12%
  • situation 12%
  • desk 10%

Families

Full lesson

On the desk vs not yet. Elo and Massey need a season. We will not costume them in Week 1.

  • Market / vig-stripped lineon desk

    Price

    32% of the blend. Biggest weight because the close is the hardest thing to beat.

  • Capper consensuson desk

    Crowd of experts

    18%. Humans, side by side, in Analysts.

  • Injury / availabilityon desk

    State

    16%. Tags on the slate, then Wire when you pull.

  • Public fadeon desk

    Market microstructure

    12%. Haircut on Yours if you leave that box on.

  • Situationon desk

    Context

    12%. Home / road / MNF / travel notes.

  • Desk prioron desk

    Human overlay

    10%. Graded every final.

  • Elonot yet

    Power rating

    Not running. Week 1 has almost no 2026 games to update. Market is the prior.

  • Massey / Colleynot yet

    Least squares ranking

    Not running. Needs a season of results. After Sunday 1 we can start a toy Massey. Not this week.

  • Pythagorean winsnot yet

    Scoring profile

    Not running. Zero 2026 regular-season points until Sunday finishes.

  • Poisson / scoring distributionnot yet

    Totals

    Totals are a lean, not a sim. Pass unless the number is extreme.

  • Kelly criterionnot yet

    Stake

    Taught in Learn. Not a bet-sizer on the ticket. Don't bet rent.

  • Closing line valuenot yet

    Process score

    Pull CBS / Circa vs snapshot is the seed of CLV. We do not yet grade tickets against the close. That is the next math after Sunday.

Sunday–Monday, ranked

Pull live Grok

Graded

Feeds we actually use

From your list: NFL.com, ESPN, CBS, Action Network, SportsLine, Covers. VegasInsider, NBC, and USA TODAY are duplicates — listed, not queried.

Skipped

  • VegasInsiderSame board as CBS. Skip unless CBS is down.
  • NBC SportsStory, not a number. Skip.
  • USA TODAY odds hubDuplicate. Skip.